Art World Predictions for the Year of the Dragon
What do artists Xu Zhen and Refik Anadol, Frieze CEO Simon Fox, curator Natalie King, and others augur for the lunar year ahead?
Ai Weiwei, Zodiac Dragon (2018) (detail). Lego bricks, 115 x 115 cm. Courtesy Tang Contemporary Art.
Last year, Chinese geomancers predicted 'fire' industries including tech would be doused during the Year of the Rabbit, which was governed by the element of water. That didn't happen—the Nasdaq 100 rose 55%—but many of the predictions made by our art world insiders came true.
Before deep fakes of Taylor Swift went viral and widespread layoffs rocked the publishing industry, artist Trevor Paglen predicted that artificial intelligence would go mainstream, decimating culture workers and further fracturing our shared sense of reality.
'Tech companies will profit. Society will bear the costs,' he warned.
Art Basel CEO Noah Horowitz and UCCA's Director Philip Tinari both manifested a return to normalcy for art audiences as they put Covid-19 behind them and sought out in-person experiences.
The Year of the Wood Dragon again promises to benefit cultural industries (wood represents vitality and creativity), despite some major challenges. The Israel-Palestine conflict that divided the art world is ongoing, China's economic miracle has come to an end, and political gulfs seem only to be widening. What do leading artists and art world insiders think?
Xu Zhen, Artist
The inner world of the art industry is becoming increasingly divided.
Inside the profession, more and more people are becoming intolerant of the facade of low-intellect right-thinking political correctness, but its prevalence won't visibly change in 2024.
Will 'zombie painting' fall from its dominant market position this year? Possibly.
Simon Fox, CEO, Frieze
The Year of the Dragon signifies good luck, justice, and prosperity. We are certainly going to need the dragon's magic in 2024 with the turbulence of conflict, stuttering global economic growth, and political in-fighting as one third of the world's population go to the polls.
We are lucky to be in the world of art, where its power, influence, and joy has never been more needed.
I am particularly looking forward to seeing and learning about emerging artist talent at the Venice Biennale and at those in Gwangju and Busan that coincide with Frieze Seoul.
Natalie King, Curator
I hope we will continue to see overlooked artists with untold histories—especially women and First Nations' communities—continue to shine in the Year of the Dragon. I am intrigued by Adriano Pedrosa's multifaceted exhibition Foreigners Everywhere for Biennale Arte 2024 with a list of Queer, Outsider and Indigenous artists.
I think we will see artists who deploy traditional materials and motifs in a contemporary way such as Maria Madeira who I have the privilege of curating for the inaugural Timor-Leste pavilion. She uses tais, a traditional textile woven by women and betelnut to tell stories of trauma and healing as a form of cultural activism.
I suspect there will be an ongoing focus on revisionist histories, materiality, and perspectives from the Global South. When the world is a mesmerising mess, maybe we see artists imagining post-apocalyptic futures.
Refik Anadol, Artist
The emergence of open-source software culture as a force for democratising AI art is a development that fills me with optimism.
It breaks down traditional barriers, making the realm of AI arts accessible to a broader, more diverse group of creators. As a result, the artistic community benefits from a more vibrant set of perspectives, pushing the boundaries of what's possible in digital creativity.
It ensures that the future of art will be characterised by greater collaboration, inclusion, and innovation, contributing to a more dynamic art world.
Wendy Lin, Chairman of Sotheby's Asia
Millennials, and increasingly Gen Z collectors, are making their presence felt in the art market. This growth is particularly evident in contemporary art where Millennials now represent 52% of the market.
In 2024, I expect to see more Gen Z collectors bridging the gap between fine art and modern collectibles, and the continuation of the generational wealth transfer will further speed up this growth.
The industry will need to adapt to the collecting habits of this new generation who are looking for seamless and engaging collecting experiences—both on and offline.
Sun Xun, Artist
The Year of the Dragon will be a perfect year. Perfectly good, or perfectly bad. Once we predict the world, the world will become what we think it is in our minds.
When we see the light, we cannot see the night at the same time, but the world includes the parts we are experiencing and the parts that we have never experienced. The coexistence of light and darkness is a perfect existence!
When we define the world, the world will smile at us with pity. Every day in this world there are countless perfect births and countless perfect deaths, countless perfect victories and countless perfect failures.
In 2024, what we should do is love the world, our relatives, our friends, and our enemies! If we could do this, we wouldn't need to love, because we would become love itself! —[O]
