Ultra-High-End Sales Propel Global Art Market Back to Growth

The global art market returned to growth in 2025, with sales increasing by four percent year-on-year to an estimated $59.6 billion USD, according to the latest Art Market Report by Art Basel/UBS.

The 247-page report, released this week and based on data gathered by Art Economics from across the trade, shows that following two consecutive years of contraction and despite global uncertainty, the market regained notable stability, though it remained 12 percent below its 2022 post-Covid-19 peak.

Dr Clare McAndrew, founder of Art Economics and author of the report, told Ocula that while the overall figure for 2025 is reassuring, she considers the year to have been a mixed bag, with pluses and minuses for different parts of the market.

“Usually, I would have a sense of how things are going to go when I’m starting the research, but I had no idea,” she said. “From travelling around for the year, talking to people, even at one fair you’d have so many different perspectives.”

To help navigate these complex outlooks, Ocula asked McAndrew to share some of the report’s key takeaways—and to explain what they reveal about the market’s prospects for the remainder of 2026.

Global market returns to growth, backed by ultra-high-end sales

According to the report, global public auction and dealer sales across 2025 presented opportunities for optimism. The former increased nine percent to $20.7 billion, while the latter grew two percent to $34.8 billion. In contrast, private sales declined by five percent to just under $4.2 billion.

Growth was concentrated at the top of the market, which saw a 21 percent year-on-year increase in fine art lots sold for more than $1 million, with transactions rising 15 percent. At the ultra-high end, sales above $10 million grew 30 percent, with a nine percent increase in the number of lots sold.

McAndrew attributed this focus on more established artists, at least in part, to risk aversion among buyers, but noted that it led to a welcome uptick in sales of Old Masters.

“Certainly, last year, while the contemporary market didn’t do badly, it was the older sector—the very reliable, established artists with a very strong historical footprint—that did well,” she said. “That’s where some of the strongest growth was.”

A mixed picture for Europe

Across Europe, the report reveals varied outcomes. In the UK, the second-largest art market with a share of 18 percent, sales in 2025 reached $10.5 billion, up two percent from 2024. Public auction sales grew, while dealer sales were more subdued, keeping the overall growth rate to a modest two percent, with total sales still below those achieved in 2019.

In France—the fourth-largest market worldwide—sales reached $4.5 billion, up nine percent year-on-year and bringing values just above their 2019 level. There was also success in Switzerland, Austria and Spain, where growth was up by 13 percent, 13 percent and six percent respectively. However, the German and Italian markets slowed by 10 percent and two percent respectively.

McAndrew noted that while not a runaway finding, there was a sense that markets became a little more inward-looking in 2025, relying more on local collectors. “I think, in the last year, the markets that were more internationally facing didn’t do quite as well as the ones that had a very strong domestic base,” she explained.

However, for the UK, the author said the picture is different. “It has by far the highest sales to external markets,” she explained. “It’s a real hub market, in the sense of people buying things in London from everywhere, and that’s been its key strength.”

US sales up, despite Trump tariff uncertainty

Following two years of decline, and against a background of unpredictable trade policy, the report places US sales at $26 billion in 2025, showing five percent growth year-on-year for the world’s largest market.

In line with global results, the combined value of fine art works sold at auction for more than $10 million increased by nearly 40 percent. Public auction sales rebounded sharply, rising 20 percent year-on-year to just over $7 billion, supported by exceptionally high-priced lots sold in New York in the latter half of the year. US dominance of the global $10 million-plus segment at fine art auctions intensified, with its share rising to 78 percent.

Dealers, however, did feel the effects of tariffs, with 56 percent reporting a negative impact on their business, compared with one percent citing a positive effect.

“When we launched last year’s report in New York and the tariffs were just being announced,” McAndrew recalled, “I thought: ‘Oh God, this is going to be a disaster.’ And actually, it was very bad for the market, but it wasn’t the disaster it could have been.”

Dealers told McAndrew that, thanks largely to exemptions for many works, the direct impact of tariffs was minimal when compared with associated costs. “People were talking about things getting held in airports while they defined it as an artwork,” she said. “When it’s not a booming market and people are a little skittish those things don’t help, but it’s amazing that the market has really pulled through.”

Online sales stabilise post-pandemic

For online sales, the report highlights a drop to $9.2 billion—their lowest level since 2019—reflecting the continued rebalancing of buyer behaviour between digital and in-person channels. Online sales’ tapering total market value of 15 percent, down three percent year-on-year and 10 percent from its peak in 2020, further reflects this.

For dealers, as higher-value transactions continued to migrate back to in-person channels, sales fell to 16 percent of total turnover, down six percent year-on-year. Auction house online-only sales were focused on mid and lower price levels, while the highest-priced lots were sold in live sales.

McAndrew explained that while online sales naturally increased during Covid-19, and that many buyers will continue to purchase this way, the stabilisation of their market value is no bad thing.

“A lot of mediums are better appreciated in person,” she said. “I think people realise that they want that live experience. Buying art is more than a pure retail product; there’s all of the other things that go with it.”

Looking ahead: cautious optimism

Optimism across the market strengthened heading into 2026, with more businesses anticipating a stronger year ahead than when surveyed 12 months previously.

At the end of 2024, confidence in the dealer sector was at its lowest level since the pandemic. However, it rebounded by the end of 2025, with 81 percent of dealers expecting sales to increase or remain stable in coming months.

For mid-tier auction houses at the end of 2024, following a difficult year, only 15 percent of businesses expected sales to improve. By the end of 2025, this had risen to 48 percent. While 21 percent anticipated weaker performance, this was markedly down from 40 percent a year earlier.

Looking ahead, McAndrew expects the momentum seen during the latter part of 2025 to continue throughout this year. However, amid war and international economic uncertainty, she had some words of caution.

“I was very optimistic when I was putting the report together in terms of what might happen this year, but now I’m a little bit more guarded in my optimism,” she said. “The growth of the market over the last 30 – 40 years has been driven by healthy cross-border trade and cross-border communication.

“Economic fragmentation, the breaking of links, all those kinds of things are really detrimental to an industry like this. And we’ve seen it for countries that put up really big guardrails and don’t let people in or out, or their artworks in or out, they’ve really been resigned to being very small.”